日众院选举 选前安倍自民党领先 三大党冲刺

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【大纪元2017年10月22日讯】日本将于10月22日(周日)举行众议院议员选举,首相安倍晋三一直面临希望之党的挑战,选前安倍的自民党支持率超前,而希望之党被立宪民主党追上。不过选前民调多次变动,结果难以预料。昨天(21日)是三大党的最后冲刺。过去10天,首相安倍晋三、东京都知事小池百合子几乎跑了半个日本拜票。

10 月22日(周日)日本众议院选举正式开始,选民已经到各地选票点投票。不少选民响应政府呼吁,已提早投票。

Japanese voters register at a polling station to vote in Japan's general election in Tokyo on October 22, 2017. Polls opened in Japan for a snap election, with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's conservatives expected to cruise to a comfortable majority after a campaign dominated by North Korea and the economy. / AFP PHOTO / Kazuhiro NOGI (Photo credit should read KAZUHIRO NOGI/AFP/Getty Images)
10 月22 日(周日)日本众议院选举开始,选民已经到各地选票点投票。(KAZUHIRO NOGI/AFP/Getty Images)

今年第21号台风兰恩直扑日本,预测影响日本主要地区的时间,正好碰到22日众议院大选投票。有分析指台风或令投票率下跌,有利自民党再度胜出。

昨天(21日)是各主要政党选前最后一天造势及拜票,关东地区下起大雨,气温在摄氏16度左右。

中央社报导,最后一天的演说,自民党主席安倍晋三主打执政5年来的“安倍经济学”及因应北韩飞弹威胁等政绩;希望之党的小池百合子则呼应党名高喊“创造一个真正有希望的社会”。立宪民主党的枝野幸男仍诉求要将社会改变成由下而上的草根社会,并将炮火对准安倍晋三。

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (C) delivers a speech during an election campaign in Tokyo on October 20, 2017. Campaigning began on October 10 for the October 22 lower house election. / AFP PHOTO / Kazuhiro NOGI (Photo credit should read KAZUHIRO NOGI/AFP/Getty Images)
图为安倍晋三在20日演说。(KAZUHIRO NOGI/AFP/Getty Images)
In this picture taken on October 18, 2017, Tokyo Governor and leader of the Party of Hope Yuriko Koike (C) raises the hand of party candidate Yoshinori Yoshida (R) during an election campaign in Saitama. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe appears poised to secure a fresh term at the helm of the world's third-biggest economy Sunday, as he seeks a mandate for his nationalist agenda and hardline stance on North Korea. / AFP PHOTO / Behrouz MEHRI (Photo credit should read BEHROUZ MEHRI/AFP/Getty Images)
小池百合子(中)则呼应党名高喊“创造一个真正有希望的社会”。(BEHROUZ MEHRI/AFP/Getty Images)

这次选举还聚焦18岁的首投族,为了催出年轻族群的票,选前至目前民意调查为止,执政自民党仍取得压倒的支持率,而小池百合子领导的希望之党支持度却下降,被民进党分裂出来新成立的立宪民主党追上。立宪民主党很有机会跟希望之党争最大在野党地位。

日本舆论认为希望之党的“失速”与在野党没有结成统一阵线,为执政自民党奠下良好胜利基础。此前预料自民党轻易取得过半数,甚至保住众议院2/3议席。但最终形势调查显示,自民党可能失去很多席位。

今日(22日),东京都知事小池百合子组建的希望之党能否挑战自民党的地位,以及首相安倍晋三可否再度连任成为选举的主要看点。

安倍9月28日解散众议院。日本《宪法》明定,众议院从被解散日起40天内必须完成选举,因此到10月22日投开票也只有3周多一点的时间;选举时间短且距离长。

《日本经济新闻》统计,截至昨天为止,八个主要政党的领袖从选举公告后,来回日本各地站台拜票的距离合计约7万7,000公里。

其中,自民党主席安倍晋三移动距离约1万2,726公里,共走访全国47个都道府县中的22个;希望之党主席小池百合子移动距离约8,565公里,跟安倍晋三一样造访22个都道府县;立宪民主党主席枝野幸男移动距离以1万3,470公里居冠,走访17个都道府县,三人都展现十足行动力。

Supporters of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party display a banner reading "Prime Minister Abe, please protect Japan" while waiting for Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to arrive for his last stumping tour for the October 22 general election in Tokyo on October 21, 2017. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on October 21 vowed to step up pressure on North Korea to protect the Japanese people as he wrapped up an election campaign dominated by threats from Pyongyang. / AFP PHOTO / Toshifumi KITAMURA (Photo credit should read TOSHIFUMI KITAMURA/AFP/Getty Images)
安倍的支持者。(TOSHIFUMI KITAMURA/AFP/Getty Images)
Supporters of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party display posters while waiting for Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to arrive for his last stumping tour for the October 22 general election in Tokyo on October 21, 2017. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on October 21 vowed to step up pressure on North Korea to protect the Japanese people as he wrapped up an election campaign dominated by threats from Pyongyang. / AFP PHOTO / Toshifumi KITAMURA (Photo credit should read TOSHIFUMI KITAMURA/AFP/Getty Images)
安倍的支持者。(TOSHIFUMI KITAMURA/AFP/Getty Images)
In this picture taken on October 18, 2017, a woman shows an electoral leaflet of Tokyo Governor and leader of the Party of Hope Yuriko Koike during an election campaign in Saitama. Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike is a media-savvy veteran who has charmed her way through Japan's male-dominated politics and transformed its sleepy political landscape with a wildcard new party that caught everyone off-guard. Koike stunned the establishment by unveiling her new conservative "Party of Hope", seeking to offer an alternative to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party. / AFP PHOTO / Behrouz MEHRI / TO GO WITH ELECTION PROFILE "JAPAN-VOTE-KOIKE" BY HIROSHI HIYAMA (Photo credit should read BEHROUZ MEHRI/AFP/Getty Images)
希望之党主席小池百合子的支持者。 (BEHROUZ MEHRI/AFP/Getty Images)

根据日本政府统计,众议员选举的投票率从2009年开始就一路往下掉,而在日本修法降低投票年龄后,18岁族群第二次参加国会大选,各政党都相当重视,为了吸引年轻人票数,日本各地餐厅纷纷推出投票折扣。

日本国会采两院制,分别为众议院(下议院)及参议院(上议院)。众议院权力较参议院大,在缔结条约与预算通过上享有最后决定权。此外,任何众议院通过的法案若遭到参议院否决,只要出席众议员2/3以上多数再度表决通过,就能成为法律。

此次众议院须选出席次465席。众议员一届任期4年,但首相有权解散众议院提前举行大选。参议院共有242席,每届任期6年。首相无权解散参议院。#

责任编辑:华子明

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