新聞出處：新唐人英語新聞
Chinese TV Host Says Regime Nearly Bankrupt
中國電視主持人說：中共濱臨破產
【新聞關鍵字】
1. brink: [brɪŋk] n.邊緣
2. miserable : [ˋmɪzərəb!] adj. 痛苦的
3. polished: [ˋpɑlɪʃt] adj. 有光澤的
4. insufferably : [ɪnˋsʌfərəblɪ] 不能忍受地
5. conjecture: [kənˋdʒɛktʃɚ] n. 推測
6. unravel: [ʌnˋrævl] 弄清; 解決
7. Bloated: [ˋblotɪd] 膨脹的
China’s economy has a reputation for being strong and prosperous, but according to a well-known Chinese television personality the country’s Gross Domestic Product is going in reverse.
近來中國經濟以強盛、繁榮知名，但根據著名的電視主持人指出，中國的國內生產總額GDP恰恰是反過來。
Larry Lang, chair professor of Finance at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said in a lecture that he didn’t think was being recorded that the Chinese regime is in a serious economic crisis—on the brink of bankruptcy. Every province in China is Greece.
香港中文大學財經系郎咸平教授，在一場他以為沒有錄影的演說中說，中共政權正處於嚴重的經濟危機中─在中國每一省都是希臘。
The restrictions Lang placed on the Oct. 22 speech in Shenyang City, in northern China’s Liaoning Province, included no audio or video recording, and no media. He can be heard saying that people should not to post his speech online, or “everyone will look bad,” in the audio that is now on Youtube.
這場10月22日在遼寧瀋陽所做的演說，郎咸平做了一些限制，包括禁止錄音錄影及媒體採訪，並要求聽眾不應將他的演說上網，否則「每個人都會很難看！」，但錄音檔現在已置於Youtube上。
In the unusual, closed-door lecture, Lang gave a frank analysis of the Chinese economy and the censorship that is placed on intellectuals and public figures. “What I’m about to say is all true. But under this system, we are not allowed to speak the truth,” he said.
在這場不尋常的秘密演講中，郎咸平對中國經濟以及對知識份子和公佈數據的新聞檢查，作了坦率的分析。「我所將說的，都是真的。但是在這個體制下，我們不被允說真話。」他說。
Despite Lang’s polished appearance on his high-profile TV shows, he said: “Don’t think that we are living in a peaceful time now. Actually the media cannot report anything at all. Those of us who do TV shows are so miserable and frustrated, because we cannot do any programs. As long as something is related to the government, we cannot report about it.”
儘管郎咸平以閃亮的電視主持人出現，他說：「不要認為我們現在是活在平靜中，實際上媒體什麼都不能報導。我們作節目的人很痛苦，因為我們無法做任何節目。只要跟政府有關的，我們就不能報導。」
He said that the regime doesn’t listen to experts, and that Party officials are insufferably arrogant. “If you don’t agree with him, he thinks you are against him,” he said.
他說中共政權不聽專家的，黨官員是無法忍受地自大。「假如你不同意他，他就認為你反對他。」他說。
Lang’s assessment that the regime is bankrupt was based on five conjectures.
郎咸平評估中共政權破產，是基於五項推測。
Firstly, that the regime’s debt sits at about 36 trillion yuan (US$5.68 trillion). This calculation is arrived at by adding up Chinese local government debt (between 16 trillion and 19.5 trillion yuan), and the debt owed by state-owned enterprises (another 16 trillion, he said). But with interest of two trillion per year, he thinks things will unravel quickly.
第一，中共債務大約36兆人民幣，這是加上中國地方地府債務大約在16兆至19.5兆之間，以及國營企業的債務16兆。但是每年2兆利息，他認為事情將會很快拆穿揭開。
Secondly, that the regime’s officially published inflation rate of 6.2 percent is fabricated. The real inflation rate is 16 percent, according to Lang.
第二，據郎咸平說，中共官方公布的通貨膨脹率6.2是偽造的，真實的通膨是16%。
Thirdly, that there is serious excess capacity in the economy, and that private consumption is only 30 percent of economic activity. Lang said that beginning this July, the Purchasing Managers Index, a measure of the manufacturing industry, plunged to a new low of 50.7. This is an indication, in his view, that China’s economy is in recession.
第三，經濟活動中嚴重地產能過剩，私有消費僅佔經濟活動的30%。郎咸平說，從今年七月開始，製造業的重要指標─採購經理人指數，下降到新低50.7。在他看來，這是中國經濟進入衰退的一項指標。
Fourthly, that the regime’s officially published GDP of 9 percent is also fabricated. According to Lang’s data, China’s GDP has decreased 10 percent. He said that the bloated figures come from the dramatic increase in real estate development each year (accounting for up to 70 percent of GDP in 2010).
第四，中共官方公布的GDP國內生產毛額9%也是捏造的。根據郎咸平的資料，中國的GDP已下降了10個百分點。他說這個膨脹的數字來自於每年房地產發展戲劇化的增加（在2010年佔了70%的GDP）。
Fifthly, that taxes are too high. Last year, the taxes on Chinese businesses (including direct and indirect taxes) were at 70 percent of earnings. The individual tax rate sits at 81.6 percent, Lang said.
第五，稅額太高了。去年中國營業稅（包括直接與間接）是在70%收益，個別稅率則站上81.6％。
Once the “economic tsunami” starts, the regime will lose credibility and China will become the poorest country in the world, Lang said.
一旦「金融海嘯」開始，中共政權將失去信用，中國將成為世界上最窮的國家。
Few scholars inside the country dare to speak as Lang has. And that’s probably because he has a professorship in Hong Kong.
很少在中國的學者敢於像郎咸平這樣說話，或許是因為他是香港教授的關係。
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責任編輯：黎薇
